# Future Of Work In Black America



## kblc06 (Oct 10, 2019)

Please share this with any black young adults you know and advise/mentor them into occupations and locations projected for growth over the next decade. Of the middle income, upwardly mobile men in my family, 85% are in occupations due to be displaced by automation .

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-in-black-america#

Cliff Notes:

Individuals without a college degree at significantly greater risk of having jobs displaced by automation over the next decade.
Areas in which automation is expected to replace jobs include office support, food services, and production/manufacturing. This is especially true for black men who are over-represented in these sectors and underrepresented in sectors that are anticipated for growth such as education/training, healthcare professions, IT/technical/software development/analytics, creative marketing, and agriculture.
Black women are actually anticipated to encounter less automation driven job displacement but are still at significant risk because they are over-represented in severely underpaid sectors.
Reducing the racial wealth gap could add between 1.1 to 1.5 trillion dollars to the US economy.
Geography- African Americans are underrepresented in five out of the six projected fastest-growing geographical archetypes and are overrepresented in two of the six slower-growing archetypes, including the one archetype that has shown negative growth—distressed americana (Exhibit 3). Distressed americana showed negative net job growth from 2007 to 2017 and is projected to show negative job growth through 2030. African Americans in these distressed areas may disproportionately feel the negative effects of impending economic and technological changes, see fewer new opportunities, and face additional challenges in transitioning to the economy of the future
Bridging the educational gap could help offset the effects of job displacement for African Americans, male and female.

*The future of work in black America*
October 2019 | Article

By Kelemwork Cook, Duwain Pinder, Shelley Stewart III, Amaka Uchegbu, and Jason Wright
_Open interactive popup_Article (PDF-707KB)
There is a well-documented, persistent, and growing racial wealth gap between African American families and white families in the United States. Studies indicate the median white family in the United States holds more than ten times the wealth of the median African American family.closing the racial wealth gap could net the US economy between $1.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion by 2028.

Despite this, the racial wealth gap threatens to grow as norms, standards, and opportunities in the current US workplace change and exacerbate existing income disparities. One critical disrupter will be the adoption of automation and other digital technologies by companies worldwide. According to estimates from the McKinsey Global Institute, companies have already invested between $20 billion and $30 billion in artificial intelligence technologies and applications. End users, businesses, and economies are hoping to significantly increase their productivity and capacity for innovation through using such technologies.

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As determined in our previous report on the racial wealth gap, African Americans start from a deprived position in the workforce, with an unemployment rate twice that of white workers, a pattern that persists even when controlling for education, duration of unemployment, and the cause of unemployment.African Americans could experience the disruptive forces of automation from a distinctly disadvantaged position, partially because they are often overrepresented in the “support roles” that are most likely to be affected by automation, such as truck drivers, food service workers, and office clerks.

This article builds on these findings using a new and proprietary data set compiled by MGI to construct a 2030 scenario that projects the impact of automation in the national workplace and specific US counties. We reviewed this demographic and employment data in 13 distinct community archetypes across the country to test our previous findings and discover if African Americans are overrepresented in both at-risk roles and within US regions that are more likely to see job declines because of automation.[email protected]
Our research also shows that African Americans tend to hold occupations at the lower end of the pay scale. Only half of the top ten occupations that African Americans typically hold pay above the federal poverty guidelines for a family of four ($25,750),[email protected]
We measured job displacement as a percentage of jobs potentially lost due to automation by 2030 and found that because of their concentration in occupations at risk of automation, African Americans have one of the highest rates of potential job displacement when compared with other groups. While the Asian population has a displacement rate of 21.7 percent and the white population has a displacement rate of 22.4 percent, the African American population has a potential displacement rate of 23.1 percent, which is outpaced only by the Hispanic/Latino population displacement rate of 25.5 percent. While these differences may seem minimal, they translate to a potential loss of approximately 132,000 African American jobs due to automation by 2030.

Our 2030 scenario also indicates that African Americans could capture a smaller share of new job growth in the economy compared with white and Asian populations based on the current job-growth outlook for these groups. There is also a possibility that higher-growth occupations that currently have a high representation of African Americans may become more attractive to workers of other races, further reducing the already small share of new jobs available to African Americans by 2030.

*Community archetypes*
Occupational distribution within the African American community and geographic concentration both affect the potential for job displacement or growth. Building on MGI’s prior identification of 13 discrete community archetypes, we were able to analyze the employment prospects for African Americans in different areas of the United States in the projected wake of automation.

The largest amount of projected African American job disruption from automation could be in areas with the largest African American populations—particularly in megacities, such as the counties that include Chicago and Washington, DC, and in stable cities, such as the counties that include Detroit and Baltimore. However, these geographic archetypes also show the disconnect between areas where African Americans are currently concentrated and areas most likely to see job growth. African Americans are underrepresented in five out of the six projected fastest-growing geographical archetypes and are overrepresented in two of the six slower-growing archetypes, including the one archetype that has shown negative growth—distressed americana (Exhibit 3). Distressed americana showed negative net job growth from 2007 to 2017 and is projected to show negative job growth through 2030. African Americans in these distressed areas may disproportionately feel the negative effects of impending economic and technological changes, see fewer new opportunities, and face additional challenges in transitioning to the economy of the future.

Exhibit 3





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*Demographics*
Just as discrete occupations and regions may be affected differently by automation, so too could discrete subpopulations within the African American workforce. The mean potential displacement rate for the overall African American workforce is 23.1 percent according to our research. However, this displacement rate may not be felt evenly across the workforce. African American men have a potential displacement rate of 24.8 percent, and African American women have a significantly lower displacement rate of 21.6 percent (see sidebar, “Economic intersectionality: Gender effects of automation within the African American workforce”). Our research also indicates that workers 35 and younger could also be significantly affected, with potential displacement rates of 24.3 percent. Additionally, African Americans without college degrees have a potential displacement rate of 24.6 percent.


Economic intersectionality: Gender effects of automation within the African American workforce
The picture is less positive for African American men. African American men are underrepresented in the top 15 occupations for men (based on 2017–2030 net job growth) that includes software developers and general and operations managers. Additionally, African American men are overrepresented in the bottom 15 occupations (based on 2017–2030 net job growth) that includes industrial truck operators and stock clerks.

Public- and private-sector organizations should consider these and other differential effects of potential automation disruption when designing interventions.

Preparing for the future
There are many challenges, as the numbers show, but opportunities for African American workers and public- and private-sector institutions to limit the adverse effects of automation remain. Our research and experience in the field point to two sets of solutions that can help alleviate the challenges compounded by economic intersectionality. The first set of solutions targets _geographies_—that is, improving economic conditions in regions in which African Americans are currently concentrated or enabling African American worker mobility. The second set targets _capabilities_—that is, improving skill development and education levels in the African American community to create additional pathways to better occupations that could be at lower risk of disruption by automation.

Geographies
Several approaches related to geographies can help assuage the challenges automation poses to African Americans.

_Improving the regions where African Americans live._ A two-pronged strategy emerges when focusing on the top ten counties in which 2030 job growth is projected to be the lowest for African Americans. First, there are areas of the United States, primarily in the stable cities archetype, in which African Americans are expected to bear a disproportionate burden of job losses compared with other racial groups in the workforce. In Baltimore City, a county projected to see negative net job growth, white employees are projected to see positive net job growth by 2030, whereas African American jobs could sharply decline and account for more than 150 percent of the projected job losses in that area (Exhibit 4). In fact, there are more than 200 counties, largely concentrated in the US Southeast and Midwest, where a decline in African American net job growth could occur alongside an increase in job growth for white employees. In these locations, social-sector and membership organizations like the National Urban League and the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) may be engaged to increase advocacy and ensure that African Americans share in the same potential gains from automation that may benefit other populations.

Exhibit 4




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Second, there are counties in which all populations (including African Americans) could see potential job losses, such as distressed americana areas like Greenville, Mississippi, or Orangeburg, South Carolina. For these counties, public- and private-sector institutions can pursue large-scale economic-development strategies to increase jobs and opportunities. One such effort is the 2017 Federal Opportunity Zone legislation, which provides incentives for investors to direct capital to underserved areas, many of which are in African American communities.Opportunity Zones, within a framework that prevents neighborhood displacement, can provide capital to help accelerate a broader economic-development agenda and help finance investment in African American communities such as mixed-use development, affordable housing, and venture investing. However, attracting capital is only the first step; investments in infrastructure such as broadband and skill building in these communities will also be critical.[email protected]
However, increasing the mobility of some employees can make economic development in distressed parts of the country even more difficult by decreasing the pool of potentially skilled employees. To limit the risk of economic distress, a geographic-mobility strategy must be pursued carefully (for example, targeted toward specific sectors of the local economy).

Capabilities
Three interventions related to the accumulation and deployment of skills and capabilities can also help stem the challenges automation poses to African Americans.

_Supporting attainment of higher education._

Disparities in educational attainment are a primary contributor to the increased risk of job disruption from automation for the African American workforce. The projected displacement risk drops significantly for African American and white employees who have bachelor’s degrees. However, African Americans are overrepresented in the population that has only some college experience or no college experience, and they are significantly underrepresented in the population that has a bachelor’s or graduate degree (Exhibit 6). Public- and private-sector investment in the higher-education sector, with a focus on historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs), can help decrease this educational attainment gap. HBCUs educate and train almost 20 percent of all African American college graduates despite making up only 3 percent of the country’s colleges and universities.[email protected]
Beyond investing in HBCUs, the higher-education sector can seek to improve retention and completion rates for African Americans. Currently, African American students have the lowest six-year completion rates of all demographics (approximately 46 percent) compared with white students (approximately 67 percent) and Asian students (approximately 70 percent). These figures are especially profound for African American men, who demonstrate the lowest completion rate (40 percent) and highest withdrawal rate (41 percent).Explore the collection
_Matching hiring criteria to occupation competencies._ Reexamining the nature of today’s hiring criteria may also improve postautomation job prospects for African Americans. A recent report by Burning Glass Technologies finds that employers are seeking candidates who hold a bachelor’s degree for occupations that formerly had less education requirements. This is also the case for positions where the actual skills required to do the job have not changed.[email protected]
The public and private sectors will need to implement targeted programs to increase the awareness of automation risk among African American workers. Additionally, both sectors will need to provide African Americans with opportunities for higher education and the ability to transition into higher-paying roles and occupations.

Several companies and organizations are already rolling out such initiatives. Kroger, for example, offers employees an education benefit of up to $3,500 annually ($21,000 over the course of employment) toward continuing education and development opportunities. Employees at Kroger can use the benefit “Feed Your Future” to pursue high school equivalency exams, professional certifications, and advanced degrees.Subscribe
About the author(s)
Kelemwork Cook is a consultant in McKinsey’s Cleveland office; Duwain Pinder is a consultant in the New Jersey office, where Shelley Stewart III is a partner; Amaka Uchegbu is a consultant in the New York office; and Jason Wright is a partner in the Washington, DC, office.


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## kblc06 (Oct 10, 2019)

One interesting excerpt from the article that has been talked about ad nauseum on this board. I find it interesting that our overall job displacement rate, for African American women, will actually be LOWER than Asians, Whites, and Hispanics, but yet the value of the jobs we dominate are so grossly underpaid:

"Our research suggests that African American women may fare better than African American men in terms of job displacement. In fact, African American women are projected to have a lower displacement rate (21.6 percent) than the total displacement rates of the white (22.4 percent) and Asian American (21.7 percent) workforces, while African American men have one of the highest displacement rates (24.8 percent).
Driving this projection is significant growth in the top 15 occupations for women—based on 2017–2030 net job growth—in which African American women are significantly overrepresented. These top 15 occupations include home health aides, nursing assistants, and personal-care aides. While African American women are also overrepresented in many of the bottom 15 occupations for women (based on 2017–2030 net job growth), these losses are offset by gains (exhibit). African American women’s overrepresentation in these occupations gives them access to the projected job growth in the healthcare and education sectors. Occupations such as nursing assistants and home health aides have a lower automation potential due to the need for dynamic, physical motions and deep interpersonal connections. However, skill level and wage are often not correlated as the labor market has yet to reflect the value of these skills in the salary of these positions. For example: home health aides average $23,210 annually and preschool teachers average $28,990 annually. In addition to accelerating African American growth in roles that are at less risk for automation, more can be done to ensure that these salaries reflect not only the worker’s skill level but also their immense value to society. Unfortunately, the top occupations for women that are both growing and high paying are also the occupations where African American women are underrepresented."


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## CarefreeinChicago (Oct 10, 2019)

Saving this to read on my long Uber ride tomorrow


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## Black Ambrosia (Oct 10, 2019)

Thanks for posting. I think you’ll get more responses with cliff notes.


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## RoundEyedGirl504 (Oct 10, 2019)

I will go and read further, but I noted the issue of black women being displaced at a lower rate but in underpaid fields. This is in line with many black women being in helping/people centric lines of work. Those are harder to displace, the issue is how to raise the wages of those types of career paths, especially given that many require at minimum a bachelor degree.


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## kblc06 (Oct 10, 2019)

Exactly! There's an economic theory that when more women are represented in a particular industry, there is a direct wage depreciation that results.

 A perfect example of this is IT/ computer based jobs.  When the industry first emerged, it was primarily dominated by women as it was seen as more secretarial/ support based work despite requiring often complex, manual computational analysis.  As the needs of the industry expanded, and became more challenging and higher paid,  men began to displace women in these roles which subsequently drove up wages. This may be due, in part,  to social factors as men are more direct in wage negotiation and requiring higher base wages as "breadwinners".

I work in heavily male dominated field of data analytics, pharma,  and clinical informatics where black women are sorely underrepresented.  However,  when we are, we thrive.  It's an area where direct and concise communication is in heavy demand but there is a lack of talent.  From what I've seen,  black women tend to be much more effective communicators and more systematic in our approach to problem solving.  This enables us facilitate and implement conceptual ideas much more fluidly.  When something sounds like BS or will not work,  we're the first to speak up.
Our culture also heavily emphasizes empathy and nurturing, which are not easily outsourced.  Rather than twisting ourselves to fit a paradigm that's not unique or effective, we should use the skills our culture has allowed us to cultivate to disrupt industries where we are underrepresented and get paid.


RoundEyedGirl504 said:


> I will go and read further, but I noted the issue of black women being displaced at a lower rate but in underpaid fields. This is in line with many black women being in helping/people centric lines of work. Those are harder to displace, the issue is how to raise the wages of those types of career paths, especially given that many require at minimum a bachelor degree.


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## kblc06 (Oct 10, 2019)

Black Ambrosia said:


> Thanks for posting. I think you’ll get more responses with cliff notes.



Thanks, I posted late last night and didn't realize the formatting came out so wonky. Added cliff notes to the OP


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## LostInAdream (Oct 10, 2019)

This is really eye opening. I have a few people to send this to. 

I’m in IT and finishing grad school this academic year. I’ve offered to teach 2 close friends who are interested in learning a more profitable skill but they have yet to act on it. 

How do you get people you know interested in growing  fields?


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## LovingLady (Oct 11, 2019)

LostInAdream said:


> How do you get people you know interested in growing fields?


The best that you can do is send them the article and be an open door for advice and support.


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## scoobygirl (Oct 11, 2019)

LostInAdream said:


> This is really eye opening. I have a few people to send this to.
> 
> I’m in IT and finishing grad school this academic year. I’ve offered to teach 2 close friends who are interested in learning a more profitable skill but they have yet to act on it.
> 
> How do you get people you know interested in growing  fields?


I moved from an engineering role into an IT role about two years ago, and I feel my life is better for it. Financially it was a lateral move but my work/life is so much better. I'm starting a second grad program in computer science for even more opportunity. 

One thing I've seen in this role is how other countries are positioning their people to snatch up these jobs. Programming and technical cores starting in high school or earlier, pairing with private industry to match business needs with a prepared workforce, and heavy government investment of public funds to make sure their people are the workforce of the future. I haven't seen that level of effort and foresight from any politician in the US.


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## Everything Zen (Oct 11, 2019)

LostInAdream said:


> This is really eye opening. I have a few people to send this to.
> 
> I’m in IT and finishing grad school this academic year. I’ve offered to teach 2 close friends who are interested in learning a more profitable skill but they have yet to act on it.
> 
> How do you get people you know interested in growing  fields?



I’m learning that people have to do for themselves. As stated above all you can do is be a mentor in terms of advice. I already made the mistake of referring a really nice young friend of mine that I’m trying to match up as potential husband material with some of my younger girlfriends to an opportunity of a lifetime at my company giving him EXACTLY what he wanted in terms of experience and he’s only been here 2 months and already  up and alot of it is the learning process regarding the politics but he ain’t even 30 yet and thisshy of six figures more than a 40k increase from his last job. All he does is  complain complain complain. That was my one and done going out of my way helping these children. They need to struggle and appreciate the process. He’s too young and entitled to really understand what it’s like out in these streets.


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## RoundEyedGirl504 (Oct 11, 2019)

I think women particularly do themselves a disservice out of fear. I am in audit/compliance, and even through the downturn I stayed employed. And the barrier for entry into the field isn't that high, so I will always be open to letting people know there are staff roles open. It pays well and is stable. But, people get all frowned up thinking there is a lot of technical things (which you learn on the job because they're industry specific). I imagine with things like data science and IT it's an even harder sell. And I also think it's harder to sell the human aspect of these jobs for people who want a role that's "helping". 

I look at RNs for instance, "helping" work, requires generally at least a BSN, can be taxing in many ways and of course since it female dominated the pay to me isn't as high as it should be especially given hourly instead of salaried pay. But that's a science based job! And it doesn't seem to deter folks. So I think there's some nuance around how people perceive themselves in the workplace aside from institutional barriers that pushes black women away from the technical jobs.


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## Maracujá (Oct 12, 2019)

kblc06 said:


> *I work in heavily male dominated field of data analytics, pharma,  and clinical informatics where black women are sorely underrepresented.  However,  when we are, we thrive.  It's an area where direct and concise communication is in heavy demand but there is a lack of talent.  From what I've seen,  black women tend to be much more effective communicators and more systematic in our approach to problem solving.  This enables us facilitate and implement conceptual ideas much more fluidly.  When something sounds like BS or will not work,  we're the first to speak up.
> 
> Our culture also heavily emphasizes empathy and nurturing, which are not easily outsourced.  Rather than twisting ourselves to fit a paradigm that's not unique or effective, we should use the skills our culture has allowed us to cultivate to disrupt industries where we are underrepresented and get paid.*



THIS!

There's a Congolese woman at my job who has conquered the plateau, she is so over it and is thriving. My Caucasian co-workers have been hinting at me to apply for a better position, since they see how motivated I am. But I know people and it's not even because they are White. Should I apply for a higher position, it would be in a semi-technical field, with less interaction with customers, but...it's still 95% female dominated and I know how we women can be. Right now I'm all about preserving my sanity . 

The Congolese co-worker who has already joined that department, has strict boundaries: she always eats lunch by herself, so do I by the way. But that just sounds miserable in the long run honestly. LeSigh. 

That being said, I could certainly use the higher pay, been earning the same amount for aeons and it's simply not cutting it anymore, now that I'm getting up there in age.


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## naturalgyrl5199 (Sep 20, 2021)

Timely. Thought I would give this a bump. I am trying to position myself for more.


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## Evolving78 (Sep 20, 2021)

naturalgyrl5199 said:


> Timely. Thought I would give this a bump. I am trying to position myself for more.


Me too… it’s been a challenge for me.


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